Issue 89.1
The Real Politicians of Austin
Director of Regulatory Affairs
Even someone like myself whose knowledge of the Real Housewives TV series is limited to just commercials knows that personal drama drives all the action. That statement has always been true in politics as well. But it’s never been as publicly front and center as it is this year in the race for Texas Speaker of the House.
Before starting our substantive coverage in future memos of the 89th Texas Legislature opening on January 14th, it’s beneficial to understand some of the background and alliances of key players who will determine not only the legislative agenda, but which bills will become law, and which ones will never emerge from the Calendars or other Committees.
The “big three” in Texas politics are Governor Abbott, Lt. Governor Patrick (who have both served for ten years), and the current Speaker of the House, Phelan. Republicans have held every statewide elected office in Texas for more than two decades, which might falsely lead you to believe there is a high level of agreement. These three had a scheduled breakfast meeting once a week during legislative sessions to coordinate agedas. However, acrimony regarding several issues, particularly school vouchers, ended that tradition last session.
The Speaker is not elected in a general election like the other two Governor positions, but by the members of the House. To support many rural House members, the Speaker ensured no school voucher bills were brought to a vote. Matters turned worse when Speaker Phelan supported an impeachment process against Texas Attorney General Paxton (AG), who has also held that position for ten years. Some say, with the support of Lt. Governor Patrick, the Texas Senate voted to acquit the AG on the impeachment.
These conflicts between Republican leadership did not fade away in 2024, as the Governor funded primary challengers against anyone who didn’t support his school vouchers initiative. The AG actively campaigned against House members who supported his impeachment. And the Lt. Governor heavily funded a primary challenger to Speaker Phelan. Although Rep. Phelan won his primary and general election, he has removed himself from consideration as the next Speaker.
Both Texas legislative bodies had a history of bipartisan interaction, including sharing committee chairmanships. In the ten years that Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has led the Texas Senate, the number of appointments of a Democrat as committee chair has steadily declined from nearly one-third of all committees immediately before his tenure to a commitment to have none this session. Democratic chairmanship was a rallying cry for conservative Republican House members against another Phelan speakership. Despite Phelan offering less than 24% of chair positions to Democrats in the last session, the smallest percentage ever.
This is important when considering the current House membership and the chances for the top two candidates. A simple majority or 76 of the 150 members is necessary to win the position of Speaker. The incoming 89th Legislature will be comprised of 88 Republicans and 62 Democrats. Rep. Cook won the nomination of the Republican caucus but not until the third vote and only after 25+ Republicans left the meeting. Traditionally, all Republicans are supposed to support the caucus selection. However, fellow Republican challenger Rep. Burrows claims to have the necessary votes to win the Speaker race. In mid-December, he released the names of 38 Republican and 38 Democrat supporters. Rep. Cook has vowed not to appoint any Democratic chairs, and the Democratic caucus has vowed not to vote for Rep. Cook.
In mid-December, Governor Abbott released a statement that the next speaker needs to be chosen by a “majority of Republicans in accordance with the Republican Caucus Rules.” The Lt. Governor congratulated Rep. Cook on the caucus vote. And the AG said supporting Rep. Burrows for Speaker “is a betrayal of the conservative movement.” This comment appears contradictory to Rep. Burrows’ voting record to ban abortion and ban transgender surgery for minors, to allow permit-less carry of handguns. He authored the “Death Star Bill,” which prevents cities and counties from passing ordinances that preempt many state laws. Rep. Burrows even advocated for school vouchers.
Selecting a Speaker will be the first order of business for the House. Will we see a continuation of the status quo in a Phelan protégé, or will years of bipartisan tradition be thrown out as it has been in the Texas Senate? Stay tuned to the Real Politicians of Austin over the 140 days beginning January 14th.
Next week, we will begin reporting on pre-filed bills that could impact the mortgage industry.
This memo reflects the opinions of Doug Foster. If you have questions about the Texas legislative process in general, please reach out to Doug Foster.